We have been writing about Canada’s structural deterioration since November 2025. The recession is confirmed.

Three prior cycles. The same structural logic each time. The opening transaction for the third has just been done.

What we described in earlier publications has now arrived with empirical force. When our last report was published, iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) was down 32% from its recent high while the Nasdaq held flat.

The binary is broken. CUSMA is no longer a three-party negotiation. The U.S. is building a bilateral deal with Mexico; formal negotiations commence May 25. Canada has had no talks since October 2025. The July 1 review is 67 days away.

A co-ordinated squeeze on energy supply, maritime access, critical minerals, proxy defence credibility, and allied cohesion — and the investment implications.

We’re pleased to share that Moneta has been engaged to advise the Province of New Brunswick on this initiative. We look forward to working with all stakeholders through a transparent process. An information session is scheduled for April 7, 2026. See the release below for registration details.